10月18日财经关注:“鸽”声与炮火,聚焦黄金

10月18日财经关注:“鸽”声与炮火,聚焦黄金

2023/10/18

编辑:Aileen

Last week was an extremely volatile week for gold. Since the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on September 20, gold prices have fallen for days. After the release of non-agricultural data on October 6, gold hit a seven-month low of US$1,810.39 per ounce, but then quickly rebounded from the low by more than US$20, reaching a new daily high of US$1,834.88 per ounce. Unexpectedly strong U.S. economic data made gold technically bearish. In addition, the surge in Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar triggered funds to accelerate their selling of precious metals. Bearish positions in precious metals were at their highest level since early November. Gold’s extreme bearish stance underpins new optimism in the market, leading to the view that gold is at depleted levels, but there is still room to the downside on a technical basis.

However, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict escalated on October 7. Under the cover of a series of rockets, dozens of Hamas militants broke out from the blockaded Gaza Strip and entered nearby Israeli towns, launching an unprecedented surprise attack. According to the Israeli medical department, the new round of conflict between Palestine and Israel has resulted in more than 400 deaths and more than 1,400 injuries on both sides. As the crisis in the Middle East triggered investor risk aversion, gold rose sharply in early trading in Asia last Monday, with the gold price hitting a maximum of $1,863.34 per ounce that day.

Risk aversion sent gold and the U.S. dollar higher at the same time, but at the same time, Federal Reserve officials issued dovish remarks, suggesting that the recent surge in long-term U.S. bond yields may mean that the need for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again is reduced. In addition, the 10-year Treasury bond yield plummeted 15 basis points from 4.797% to 4.657%, supporting the surge in gold prices under the influence of multiple factors.

Last Friday, Israel gave a 24-hour deadline to require all civilians in Gaza to evacuate the city and move to the south. This was interpreted by the market as a signal of an escalation of the situation. Risk aversion swept across the market again, and gold surged to $20 in the short term. Rumors are also growing that Israel is preparing a large-scale ground attack on Gaza, and with growing chaos in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine crisis, investors are making sure they are protected against anything that could happen over the weekend. As risk aversion increased again, U.S. debt rebounded, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falling by more than 10 basis points at one point, ending the week with five consecutive rises; the U.S. dollar index rose to a one-week high for two consecutive weeks; gold rebounded sharply, rising for the first time in ten months. It rose more than 3% on the day and rose more than 5% for the whole week, the largest increase in nearly seven months.

Thousands of Palestinians fled to southern Gaza on Saturday, AFP reported. Tens of thousands of Palestinians are estimated to have moved south from northern Gaza, according to the United Nations, which said more than 400,000 Palestinians had been displaced before Israel’s evacuation order was issued.

Some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, have been killed in Israel since a bloody attack by the Palestinian Islamist movement sparked hostilities on October 7. In the Gaza Strip, Israel launched a large-scale attack that killed 1,417 people, including many civilians, according to local Palestinian authorities. After the attack, the army claimed to have found the bodies of 1,500 infiltrated Hamas fighters.

The Israel Defense Forces said it was “prepared to implement a broad offensive operational plan” that would include a “comprehensive and coordinated attack from the air, sea and land” against Hamas in Gaza. On October 14, local time, according to a statement translated by NBC News, the Israel Defense Forces added that it had completed the counterattack mobilization of hundreds of thousands of troops.

On the one hand, the market is concerned about the conflict in the Middle East, and on the other hand, it is concerned about the outlook for interest rates. U.S. stocks rose and Treasury yields fell after comments from Federal Reserve officials last week heightened speculation the central bank would again pause on raising interest rates. Although U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in September, the data failed to stimulate a rise in the dollar. Investors turned their attention to speeches from Federal Reserve officials this week, including Chairman Jerome Powell on Thursday, for further clues on interest rate policy.

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点,与Rallyville Markets无关。Rallyville Markets对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立,不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证,且不构成任何投资建议,请读者仅作参考,并自行承担全部风险与责任。

Last week was an extremely volatile week for gold. Since the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on September 20, gold prices have fallen for days. After the release of non-agricultural data on October 6, gold hit a seven-month low of US$1,810.39 per ounce, but then quickly rebounded from the low by more than US$20, reaching a new daily high of US$1,834.88 per ounce. Unexpectedly strong U.S. economic data made gold technically bearish. In addition, the surge in Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar triggered funds to accelerate their selling of precious metals. Bearish positions in precious metals were at their highest level since early November. Gold’s extreme bearish stance underpins new optimism in the market, leading to the view that gold is at depleted levels, but there is still room to the downside on a technical basis.

However, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict escalated on October 7. Under the cover of a series of rockets, dozens of Hamas militants broke out from the blockaded Gaza Strip and entered nearby Israeli towns, launching an unprecedented surprise attack. According to the Israeli medical department, the new round of conflict between Palestine and Israel has resulted in more than 400 deaths and more than 1,400 injuries on both sides. As the crisis in the Middle East triggered investor risk aversion, gold rose sharply in early trading in Asia last Monday, with the gold price hitting a maximum of $1,863.34 per ounce that day.

Risk aversion sent gold and the U.S. dollar higher at the same time, but at the same time, Federal Reserve officials issued dovish remarks, suggesting that the recent surge in long-term U.S. bond yields may mean that the need for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again is reduced. In addition, the 10-year Treasury bond yield plummeted 15 basis points from 4.797% to 4.657%, supporting the surge in gold prices under the influence of multiple factors.

Last Friday, Israel gave a 24-hour deadline to require all civilians in Gaza to evacuate the city and move to the south. This was interpreted by the market as a signal of an escalation of the situation. Risk aversion swept across the market again, and gold surged to $20 in the short term. Rumors are also growing that Israel is preparing a large-scale ground attack on Gaza, and with growing chaos in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine crisis, investors are making sure they are protected against anything that could happen over the weekend. As risk aversion increased again, U.S. debt rebounded, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falling by more than 10 basis points at one point, ending the week with five consecutive rises; the U.S. dollar index rose to a one-week high for two consecutive weeks; gold rebounded sharply, rising for the first time in ten months. It rose more than 3% on the day and rose more than 5% for the whole week, the largest increase in nearly seven months.

Thousands of Palestinians fled to southern Gaza on Saturday, AFP reported. Tens of thousands of Palestinians are estimated to have moved south from northern Gaza, according to the United Nations, which said more than 400,000 Palestinians had been displaced before Israel’s evacuation order was issued.

Some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, have been killed in Israel since a bloody attack by the Palestinian Islamist movement sparked hostilities on October 7. In the Gaza Strip, Israel launched a large-scale attack that killed 1,417 people, including many civilians, according to local Palestinian authorities. After the attack, the army claimed to have found the bodies of 1,500 infiltrated Hamas fighters.

The Israel Defense Forces said it was “prepared to implement a broad offensive operational plan” that would include a “comprehensive and coordinated attack from the air, sea and land” against Hamas in Gaza. On October 14, local time, according to a statement translated by NBC News, the Israel Defense Forces added that it had completed the counterattack mobilization of hundreds of thousands of troops.

On the one hand, the market is concerned about the conflict in the Middle East, and on the other hand, it is concerned about the outlook for interest rates. U.S. stocks rose and Treasury yields fell after comments from Federal Reserve officials last week heightened speculation the central bank would again pause on raising interest rates. Although U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in September, the data failed to stimulate a rise in the dollar. Investors turned their attention to speeches from Federal Reserve officials this week, including Chairman Jerome Powell on Thursday, for further clues on interest rate policy.

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点,与Rallyville Markets无关。Rallyville Markets对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立,不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证,且不构成任何投资建议,请读者仅作参考,并自行承担全部风险与责任。