12月14日财经关注:美联储“鸽”声绕梁,直盘高歌猛进

12月14日财经关注:美联储“鸽”声绕梁,直盘高歌猛进

2023/12/14

编辑:Mickey

The Federal Reserve’s 2023 annual interest rate resolution has come to an end, with the bank deciding to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a range of 5.25%-5.50%, in line with expectations. Among the eight resolutions this year, the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points four times and kept interest rates unchanged four other times.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said on Wednesday local time that the historic tightening cycle of U.S. monetary policy may have ended, and discussions about interest rate cuts have begun to “come into view.”

Powell’s remarks at a news conference after the Fed’s final policy meeting of the year were consistent with the forecasts of all 19 policymakers. Forecasts show borrowing costs will fall in 2024, with many policymakers predicting a steep decline.

“You saw policymakers didn’t write to raise interest rates: that’s because we think we’ve done enough,” Powell said.

Powell said that while policymakers don’t want to rule out another rate hike, that is no longer the “base case.” The timing of a rate cut “is really the next question: that’s what policymakers are thinking and talking about,” he said, adding that the “widespread expectation” was that the issue would be discussed at future meetings.

The latest forecasts also show policymakers view risks to inflation and employment, the Fed’s two main mandates, as more balanced.

Powell said that although it was too early to declare victory, “the question of when is the appropriate time to start reducing policy restrictions: is starting to come into view.”

Some analysts had expected Fed Chairman Powell to push back on market pricing and signal that a rate cut in the first half of next year was unlikely.

After the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision was announced, setting a timetable for multiple interest rate cuts in 2024 and beyond, the U.S. dollar index fell in response. The U.S. 10-year benchmark Treasury bond yield was the lowest since August, falling 17.29 basis points to 4.0296%. It was trading in the 4.2083%-4.0051% range during the session. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to its lowest level since mid-June, falling 27.08 basis points to 4.4579%. It was trading in the 4.7348%-4.4244% range during the session. The yield on the U.S. 5-year Treasury note fell below 4%, the lowest since July 20.

Gundlach, the “new bond king” and founder of Doubleline Capital, said that it has become a trend for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged. The Federal Reserve believes that they have completed the current cycle of interest rate hikes. The annual CPI rate in the United States may reach 2.4% in June next year. . He said, “Next year we will see U.S. Treasury yields drop to a low range starting with 3. It is expected that U.S. Treasury yields will fall back below 4.0% by 2024, possibly at the low end of the 3.0%-3.99% range; The yield curve may invert in the first half of 2024, ending the current inversion; the Fed may have to cut interest rates more than expected.”

With inflation slowing and the economy stabilizing, policymakers at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to keep the benchmark overnight lending rate in a target range of 5.25%-5.5%.

In deciding to hold on, committee members also expected at least three rate cuts in 2024, assuming a rate cut of 0.25 percentage points. That’s below the market price of four, but more aggressive than officials had previously suggested.

According to CME’s “Fed Watch” data, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in February next year is 83.5%, the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 0%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 16.5%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged by March next year is 20.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut is 66.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point interest rate cut is 12.4%.

Carlo Alberto De Casa, market analyst at Kinesis Money, said: “Gold is re-priced based on what’s happening in the yield market because investors have been very confident that the Fed will cut interest rates quickly in the first half of 2024, but now the market is less sure about that. .”

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点,与Rallyville Markets无关。Rallyville Markets对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立,不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证,且不构成任何投资建议,请读者仅作参考,并自行承担全部风险与责任。

The Federal Reserve’s 2023 annual interest rate resolution has come to an end, with the bank deciding to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a range of 5.25%-5.50%, in line with expectations. Among the eight resolutions this year, the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points four times and kept interest rates unchanged four other times.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said on Wednesday local time that the historic tightening cycle of U.S. monetary policy may have ended, and discussions about interest rate cuts have begun to “come into view.”

Powell’s remarks at a news conference after the Fed’s final policy meeting of the year were consistent with the forecasts of all 19 policymakers. Forecasts show borrowing costs will fall in 2024, with many policymakers predicting a steep decline.

“You saw policymakers didn’t write to raise interest rates: that’s because we think we’ve done enough,” Powell said.

Powell said that while policymakers don’t want to rule out another rate hike, that is no longer the “base case.” The timing of a rate cut “is really the next question: that’s what policymakers are thinking and talking about,” he said, adding that the “widespread expectation” was that the issue would be discussed at future meetings.

The latest forecasts also show policymakers view risks to inflation and employment, the Fed’s two main mandates, as more balanced.

Powell said that although it was too early to declare victory, “the question of when is the appropriate time to start reducing policy restrictions: is starting to come into view.”

Some analysts had expected Fed Chairman Powell to push back on market pricing and signal that a rate cut in the first half of next year was unlikely.

After the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision was announced, setting a timetable for multiple interest rate cuts in 2024 and beyond, the U.S. dollar index fell in response. The U.S. 10-year benchmark Treasury bond yield was the lowest since August, falling 17.29 basis points to 4.0296%. It was trading in the 4.2083%-4.0051% range during the session. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to its lowest level since mid-June, falling 27.08 basis points to 4.4579%. It was trading in the 4.7348%-4.4244% range during the session. The yield on the U.S. 5-year Treasury note fell below 4%, the lowest since July 20.

Gundlach, the “new bond king” and founder of Doubleline Capital, said that it has become a trend for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged. The Federal Reserve believes that they have completed the current cycle of interest rate hikes. The annual CPI rate in the United States may reach 2.4% in June next year. . He said, “Next year we will see U.S. Treasury yields drop to a low range starting with 3. It is expected that U.S. Treasury yields will fall back below 4.0% by 2024, possibly at the low end of the 3.0%-3.99% range; The yield curve may invert in the first half of 2024, ending the current inversion; the Fed may have to cut interest rates more than expected.”

With inflation slowing and the economy stabilizing, policymakers at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to keep the benchmark overnight lending rate in a target range of 5.25%-5.5%.

In deciding to hold on, committee members also expected at least three rate cuts in 2024, assuming a rate cut of 0.25 percentage points. That’s below the market price of four, but more aggressive than officials had previously suggested.

According to CME’s “Fed Watch” data, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in February next year is 83.5%, the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 0%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 16.5%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged by March next year is 20.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut is 66.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point interest rate cut is 12.4%.

Carlo Alberto De Casa, market analyst at Kinesis Money, said: “Gold is re-priced based on what’s happening in the yield market because investors have been very confident that the Fed will cut interest rates quickly in the first half of 2024, but now the market is less sure about that. .”

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点,与Rallyville Markets无关。Rallyville Markets对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立,不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证,且不构成任何投资建议,请读者仅作参考,并自行承担全部风险与责任。