Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, said: “With no supply disruptions, the market is correcting itself, and they believe that Iranian warships are unlikely to engage U.S. warships.” He pointed out: “Obviously, if a conflict occurs, the oil market will usher in a rise .”

On Sunday, U.S. helicopters successfully repelled an attack by Iran-backed Houthi rebels on a container ship operated by Danish shipping company Maersk ( MAERSKb.CO ) in the Red Sea. The semi-official Tasnim news agency reported that an Iranian warship entered the Red Sea on Monday.

Faced with the situation, Denmark’s Maersk Group and German rival Hapag-Lloyd (HLAG.DE) said their container ships will continue to avoid the Red Sea route to the Suez Canal. This has raised concerns that a wider conflict could shut down vital waterways for oil transport.

France’s CMA CGM (CMA-CGM) posted a notice on its website on Tuesday saying that starting from January 15, container freight rates from Asia to the Mediterranean will be increased by up to 100% compared to January 1. The freight rate for a 40-foot container will increase to $6,000 from $3,000 on January 1. Shares in shipping companies have been rising since Yemen’s Houthi rebels attacked some ships in the Red Sea on expectations that longer shipping routes will lead to higher freight rates. Shipping giant Maersk said it would decide on Tuesday whether to resume Red Sea ship traffic through the Suez Canal or follow rival Hapag-Lloyd’s (Hapag-Lloyd) and continue to change routes. A spokesman for CMA CGM said it did not have any information to add at this time and was ready to reassess and adjust its plans as necessary. Maersk said, “We will continue to suspend all cargo shipments through the Red Sea while we further evaluate the evolving situation. Where it makes the most sense for our customers, vessels will change routes and continue sailing around the Cape of Good Hope.”

According to shipping intelligence company Kpler, OPEC production increased by 48,000 barrels per day in December 2023, reaching 26.53 million barrels per day. In addition, according to representatives, OPEC+ will hold an online meeting early next month to resume routine oil market monitoring. According to people familiar with the matter, the meeting is scheduled to be held on February 1. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies began a new round of production cuts this month in an attempt to avoid a global supply glut in the first quarter and defend crude prices. Oil prices fell nearly 20% in the fourth quarter as record supply from the United States and other countries offset OPEC+ production cuts and strong fuel demand. Oil consumption growth is expected to slow sharply this year, raising concerns about a supply glut. Angola announced its withdrawal from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries after sixteen years of membership, amid disputes over production quotas. However, this is not expected to have any impact on supply from the country and the OPEC+ alliance.

China’s manufacturing activity shrank for a third consecutive month in December, government data showed on Sunday, as investors’ expectations for economic stimulus measures rose. Leon Li, an analyst at CMC Markets in Shanghai, said: “Oil prices may be affected by the upgrade…the peak demand season during the Red Sea and Chinese New Year over the weekend.” According to the latest data on Tuesday, U.S. economic data once again fell short of expectations. , the S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to a four-month low of 47.9 in December, adding to downward pressure. The number is widely expected to hold steady at November’s 48.2, with a weaker U.S. economic outlook weighing on risk appetite and crude prices falling further as investors return to the safe-haven dollar and sell off stocks and shares. Any such stimulus could boost oil demand and support crude prices.

At the same time, as the world situation continues to evolve, investors paying attention to the oil market will pay close attention to the development of geopolitical and economic data to better assess future market trends.