7月4日财经关注:澳联储7月意外暂停加息

7月4日财经关注:澳联储7月意外暂停加息

2023/07/04

编辑:Clanquire

statement of events

This Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to suspend interest rate hikes and unexpectedly kept interest rates unchanged at 4.1%. After the announcement of the decision, the Australian dollar fell about 40 points against the US dollar in the short term to around 0.6643, and subsequently returned to 0.6650. Before the RBA interest rate decision, the Australian dollar rose slightly against the US dollar, trading near the 0.6683 price position, an increase of about 0.19%.

Event cause analysis

Today’s decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia continues a series of intermittent policy measures by the Reserve Bank of Australia this year: earlier, the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to raise interest rates in February and March, suspended interest rate increases in April, and restarted interest rate increases in May and June. , and then suspended interest rate increases again in July. Interest rates have increased by 4 percentage points since May last year. The RBA says higher interest rates are working to create a more sustainable balance between supply and demand in the economy and will continue to do so. In light of this and the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook, the Reserve Bank of Australia has decided to keep interest rates steady this month. In contrast to the RBA, the governors of European and American central banks have recently stated that they still have a long way to go in curbing inflation.

The Australia Council has assessed the impact of more than a year-long tightening cycle on the economy while leaving the door open to future interest rate hikes. This month’s decision to keep interest rates steady provides the Committee with additional time to assess economic conditions, the economic outlook and related risks. The Committee will continue to monitor closely developments in the global economy, trends in household spending, and changes in inflation and the labor market both now and in the future as it makes its decision. The Committee remains determined to return inflation to target and will take the necessary steps to achieve this goal.

As for the current inflation situation in Australia, a series of previous economic data suggest that Australia’s inflation rate has passed its peak. May CPI data, that is, consumer price data, has further declined, but inflation is still too high and will continue for some time. . High inflation makes life difficult for everyone and harms the economy. It erodes the value of savings, damages household budgets, makes it difficult for businesses to plan and invest, and increases income inequality. If high inflation becomes ingrained in people’s expectations, lowering it will be very expensive, including higher interest rates and higher unemployment. These inflation data once again cooled expectations that Australia will continue to raise interest rates this month, and the committee’s priority is to get inflation back to target within a reasonable time.

The outlook for household consumption remains a significant uncertainty as Australia’s economic growth slows. Household spending has slowed sharply due to a combination of high interest rates and cost-of-living pressures. While house prices are rising again and some households have large savings buffers, others are having their finances squeezed painfully. The committee’s speech described some Australian families as experiencing a “painful austerity” financially. Global economic uncertainty is also having an impact on the Australian economy, with global economic growth expected to be below average over the past few years, but there is still some uncertainty in this regard. Based on current economic data, the Reserve Bank of Australia stated that the path to a soft landing for the economy is still very narrow and further tightening of monetary policy may be required.

Conditions in Australia’s labor market have eased, but remain tight. According to employment report data, Australia’s labor shortage has eased, but job vacancies and advertisements remain high. The labor force participation rate is at a record high and the unemployment rate remains near its lowest level in 50 years. Wage growth has picked up amid tight labor markets and high inflation. At an aggregate level, wage growth remains consistent with the inflation target, as long as productivity growth picks up. The Committee remains concerned about the risk that current expectations of high inflation will lead to significant increases in prices and wages, particularly given the limited remaining capacity in the economy and the very low unemployment rate. Therefore, the Reserve Bank of Australia will continue to pay close attention to the evolution of labor costs and the pricing behavior of companies, and remain alert to the risk that expectations of continued high inflation will lead to sharp increases in prices and wages.

In summary, the RBA’s focus is on striking the right balance between addressing price pressures and supporting full employment and economic growth. Although the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to suspend raising interest rates in July, this move was to allow more time to evaluate the economic situation and economic prospects. Regarding whether the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates in the future, given the current inflation data, further monetary tightening policy It seems inevitable.

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点,与Rallyville Markets无关。Rallyville Markets对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立,不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证,且不构成任何投资建议,请读者仅作参考,并自行承担全部风险与责任。

statement of events

This Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to suspend interest rate hikes and unexpectedly kept interest rates unchanged at 4.1%. After the announcement of the decision, the Australian dollar fell about 40 points against the US dollar in the short term to around 0.6643, and subsequently returned to 0.6650. Before the RBA interest rate decision, the Australian dollar rose slightly against the US dollar, trading near the 0.6683 price position, an increase of about 0.19%.

Event cause analysis

Today’s decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia continues a series of intermittent policy measures by the Reserve Bank of Australia this year: earlier, the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to raise interest rates in February and March, suspended interest rate increases in April, and restarted interest rate increases in May and June. , and then suspended interest rate increases again in July. Interest rates have increased by 4 percentage points since May last year. The RBA says higher interest rates are working to create a more sustainable balance between supply and demand in the economy and will continue to do so. In light of this and the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook, the Reserve Bank of Australia has decided to keep interest rates steady this month. In contrast to the RBA, the governors of European and American central banks have recently stated that they still have a long way to go in curbing inflation.

The Australia Council has assessed the impact of more than a year-long tightening cycle on the economy while leaving the door open to future interest rate hikes. This month’s decision to keep interest rates steady provides the Committee with additional time to assess economic conditions, the economic outlook and related risks. The Committee will continue to monitor closely developments in the global economy, trends in household spending, and changes in inflation and the labor market both now and in the future as it makes its decision. The Committee remains determined to return inflation to target and will take the necessary steps to achieve this goal.

As for the current inflation situation in Australia, a series of previous economic data suggest that Australia’s inflation rate has passed its peak. May CPI data, that is, consumer price data, has further declined, but inflation is still too high and will continue for some time. . High inflation makes life difficult for everyone and harms the economy. It erodes the value of savings, damages household budgets, makes it difficult for businesses to plan and invest, and increases income inequality. If high inflation becomes ingrained in people’s expectations, lowering it will be very expensive, including higher interest rates and higher unemployment. These inflation data once again cooled expectations that Australia will continue to raise interest rates this month, and the committee’s priority is to get inflation back to target within a reasonable time.

The outlook for household consumption remains a significant uncertainty as Australia’s economic growth slows. Household spending has slowed sharply due to a combination of high interest rates and cost-of-living pressures. While house prices are rising again and some households have large savings buffers, others are having their finances squeezed painfully. The committee’s speech described some Australian families as experiencing a “painful austerity” financially. Global economic uncertainty is also having an impact on the Australian economy, with global economic growth expected to be below average over the past few years, but there is still some uncertainty in this regard. Based on current economic data, the Reserve Bank of Australia stated that the path to a soft landing for the economy is still very narrow and further tightening of monetary policy may be required.

Conditions in Australia’s labor market have eased, but remain tight. According to employment report data, Australia’s labor shortage has eased, but job vacancies and advertisements remain high. The labor force participation rate is at a record high and the unemployment rate remains near its lowest level in 50 years. Wage growth has picked up amid tight labor markets and high inflation. At an aggregate level, wage growth remains consistent with the inflation target, as long as productivity growth picks up. The Committee remains concerned about the risk that current expectations of high inflation will lead to significant increases in prices and wages, particularly given the limited remaining capacity in the economy and the very low unemployment rate. Therefore, the Reserve Bank of Australia will continue to pay close attention to the evolution of labor costs and the pricing behavior of companies, and remain alert to the risk that expectations of continued high inflation will lead to sharp increases in prices and wages.

In summary, the RBA’s focus is on striking the right balance between addressing price pressures and supporting full employment and economic growth. Although the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to suspend raising interest rates in July, this move was to allow more time to evaluate the economic situation and economic prospects. Regarding whether the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates in the future, given the current inflation data, further monetary tightening policy It seems inevitable.

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点,与Rallyville Markets无关。Rallyville Markets对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立,不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证,且不构成任何投资建议,请读者仅作参考,并自行承担全部风险与责任。