7月7日财经关注:小非农ADP数据远好于预期,市场聚焦今晚非农数据

7月7日财经关注:小非农ADP数据远好于预期,市场聚焦今晚非农数据

2023/07/07

编辑:Clan

statement of events

Spot gold fluctuated within a narrow range on Friday, currently trading around $1,911.68 per ounce. Better-than-expected U.S. private employment data and other data were released overnight. The tight and strong labor market boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve will further raise interest rates, prompting the dollar to Climbing, the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield hit its highest level in more than four months, and the 2-year Treasury bond yield rose to its highest price level since June 2007. The U.S. dollar index once hit a new high in nearly three weeks to 103.58, but closed down 0.23%. It closed near 103.12. It was currently trading within a narrow range on Thursday and is currently trading around 103.13. The pressure on gold prices was obvious, with gold prices once falling to around $1,903.

event analysis

The ADP national employment report showed that private employment surged by 497,000 jobs in June, double the expected 228,000 jobs. This is a good sign for the non-farm payrolls report to be released on Friday night. A data report released on Thursday showed that laid-off workers experienced shorter periods of unemployment, making it more likely that the Federal Reserve will resume raising interest rates in July. Although job vacancies fell to a two-year low in May, they were still well above pre-pandemic levels. Private employment increased by 267,000 in May. Private employment growth in the United States in June exceeded expectations. Combined with the slight increase in the number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week, the current number of continued jobless claims is very low by historical standards, indicating that some laid-off workers can quickly find new jobs. There are signs that the labor market remains on solid footing despite the growing risk of recession. There are currently 1.6 job vacancies for every unemployed person, and more people are quitting their jobs. This is a sign of confidence in the labor market. These data outline an optimistic picture for the labor market. The data also raised prospects for the economy to avoid a feared recession later this year, with global risk appetite cooling sharply in the short term, making a soft landing for the U.S. economy appear feasible.

Nick Bunker, director of research at Indeed Hiring Lab, said, “Demand for new workers remains high and employers are still insisting on retaining existing employees, and these data continue to make a soft landing scenario more likely.”

For gold, the technical bearish signal has further strengthened, and gold prices are at risk of falling below the 1,900 mark. “The weakness we are seeing in gold reflects expectations that the Federal Reserve is more likely to raise interest rates at its July meeting,” said David Meger, head of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. “We are seeing a decline in continuing jobless claims, ADP The private employment data was better than expected. So we’re seeing yields rising, so the gold market is further under pressure.”

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said there was a case for raising interest rates at the June policy meeting, confirming her view that further rate hikes are needed to cool the still-strong economy.

“If job growth and/or inflation continue to be hotter than expected in the second half of 2023, the Fed may be on the verge of not just one more 25 basis point hike, but two,” Comerica Bank chief economist Bill Adams wrote. , and then stay on hold for the first half of 2024.”

Refinitiv’s FedWatch shows that the prospect of a U.S. interest rate cut has been postponed to July 2024, when the federal funds target rate is expected to reach around 5%. A few weeks ago, interest rate futures markets expected the Fed to ease policy next March.

Late-morning moves in benchmark federal funds futures suggested a 47% chance of a rate hike in November, compared with a 36% chance of pricing in a rate hike the day before, according to CME’s FedWatch data. For the July Fed policy meeting, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 95%, down from 90.5% late Wednesday.

Investors remain focused on Friday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls report, which may confirm the resilience of the employment situation, for more clues on the Fed’s path to raising interest rates. According to a Reuters survey of economists, non-farm payrolls may increase by 225,000 jobs in June after adding 339,000 jobs in May. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.6% from 3.7% in May, with average hourly wages falling slightly to an annual rate of 4.2% in June.

Deutsche Bank predicts that the U.S. non-farm payrolls will increase by 225,000 in June, lower than the previous value of 339,000 but higher than the expected value of 200,000. After an unexpected increase in the U.S. unemployment rate last month, the unemployment rate fell to 3.6% in June. Average hourly wages remained unchanged at 0.3% month over month, while average weekly hours rebounded from 34.3 hours to 34.4 hours in June.

Credit Suisse expects U.S. non-farm growth to slow to 190,000 in June because, in the bank’s view, all evidence shows that U.S. job growth is slowing but still at historically strong levels; Credit Suisse expects U.S. unemployment in June will fall to 3.6%, while the average hourly wage rate remained at 0.3% in June.

TD Securities believes that U.S. non-farm payrolls in June may still be above trend, with an increase of 240,000, but the data will still slow down compared with the average increase of 317,000 from April to May. This is at least the direction the Fed wants to see; TD also predicts that the U.S. unemployment rate will fall by 0.1% to 3.6% in June, the average hourly wage in June will increase at a monthly rate of 0.3%, and the average hourly wage in June will remain at an annual rate of 4.3%. %constant.

Royal Bank of Canada predicts that the U.S. non-farm payrolls will increase by 260,000 in June, down from 339,000 in May, but still at a high level; the U.S. unemployment rate in June may rise slightly to 3.8% from 3.7% in May.

Société Générale expects U.S. non-farm payroll data to be strong again, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 250,000 in June and the unemployment rate falling to 3.6%.

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点,与Rallyville Markets无关。Rallyville Markets对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立,不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证,且不构成任何投资建议,请读者仅作参考,并自行承担全部风险与责任。

statement of events

Spot gold fluctuated within a narrow range on Friday, currently trading around $1,911.68 per ounce. Better-than-expected U.S. private employment data and other data were released overnight. The tight and strong labor market boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve will further raise interest rates, prompting the dollar to Climbing, the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield hit its highest level in more than four months, and the 2-year Treasury bond yield rose to its highest price level since June 2007. The U.S. dollar index once hit a new high in nearly three weeks to 103.58, but closed down 0.23%. It closed near 103.12. It was currently trading within a narrow range on Thursday and is currently trading around 103.13. The pressure on gold prices was obvious, with gold prices once falling to around $1,903.

event analysis

The ADP national employment report showed that private employment surged by 497,000 jobs in June, double the expected 228,000 jobs. This is a good sign for the non-farm payrolls report to be released on Friday night. A data report released on Thursday showed that laid-off workers experienced shorter periods of unemployment, making it more likely that the Federal Reserve will resume raising interest rates in July. Although job vacancies fell to a two-year low in May, they were still well above pre-pandemic levels. Private employment increased by 267,000 in May. Private employment growth in the United States in June exceeded expectations. Combined with the slight increase in the number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week, the current number of continued jobless claims is very low by historical standards, indicating that some laid-off workers can quickly find new jobs. There are signs that the labor market remains on solid footing despite the growing risk of recession. There are currently 1.6 job vacancies for every unemployed person, and more people are quitting their jobs. This is a sign of confidence in the labor market. These data outline an optimistic picture for the labor market. The data also raised prospects for the economy to avoid a feared recession later this year, with global risk appetite cooling sharply in the short term, making a soft landing for the U.S. economy appear feasible.

Nick Bunker, director of research at Indeed Hiring Lab, said, “Demand for new workers remains high and employers are still insisting on retaining existing employees, and these data continue to make a soft landing scenario more likely.”

For gold, the technical bearish signal has further strengthened, and gold prices are at risk of falling below the 1,900 mark. “The weakness we are seeing in gold reflects expectations that the Federal Reserve is more likely to raise interest rates at its July meeting,” said David Meger, head of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. “We are seeing a decline in continuing jobless claims, ADP The private employment data was better than expected. So we’re seeing yields rising, so the gold market is further under pressure.”

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said there was a case for raising interest rates at the June policy meeting, confirming her view that further rate hikes are needed to cool the still-strong economy.

“If job growth and/or inflation continue to be hotter than expected in the second half of 2023, the Fed may be on the verge of not just one more 25 basis point hike, but two,” Comerica Bank chief economist Bill Adams wrote. , and then stay on hold for the first half of 2024.”

Refinitiv’s FedWatch shows that the prospect of a U.S. interest rate cut has been postponed to July 2024, when the federal funds target rate is expected to reach around 5%. A few weeks ago, interest rate futures markets expected the Fed to ease policy next March.

Late-morning moves in benchmark federal funds futures suggested a 47% chance of a rate hike in November, compared with a 36% chance of pricing in a rate hike the day before, according to CME’s FedWatch data. For the July Fed policy meeting, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 95%, down from 90.5% late Wednesday.

Investors remain focused on Friday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls report, which may confirm the resilience of the employment situation, for more clues on the Fed’s path to raising interest rates. According to a Reuters survey of economists, non-farm payrolls may increase by 225,000 jobs in June after adding 339,000 jobs in May. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.6% from 3.7% in May, with average hourly wages falling slightly to an annual rate of 4.2% in June.

Deutsche Bank predicts that the U.S. non-farm payrolls will increase by 225,000 in June, lower than the previous value of 339,000 but higher than the expected value of 200,000. After an unexpected increase in the U.S. unemployment rate last month, the unemployment rate fell to 3.6% in June. Average hourly wages remained unchanged at 0.3% month over month, while average weekly hours rebounded from 34.3 hours to 34.4 hours in June.

Credit Suisse expects U.S. non-farm growth to slow to 190,000 in June because, in the bank’s view, all evidence shows that U.S. job growth is slowing but still at historically strong levels; Credit Suisse expects U.S. unemployment in June will fall to 3.6%, while the average hourly wage rate remained at 0.3% in June.

TD Securities believes that U.S. non-farm payrolls in June may still be above trend, with an increase of 240,000, but the data will still slow down compared with the average increase of 317,000 from April to May. This is at least the direction the Fed wants to see; TD also predicts that the U.S. unemployment rate will fall by 0.1% to 3.6% in June, the average hourly wage in June will increase at a monthly rate of 0.3%, and the average hourly wage in June will remain at an annual rate of 4.3%. %constant.

Royal Bank of Canada predicts that the U.S. non-farm payrolls will increase by 260,000 in June, down from 339,000 in May, but still at a high level; the U.S. unemployment rate in June may rise slightly to 3.8% from 3.7% in May.

Société Générale expects U.S. non-farm payroll data to be strong again, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 250,000 in June and the unemployment rate falling to 3.6%.

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点,与Rallyville Markets无关。Rallyville Markets对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立,不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证,且不构成任何投资建议,请读者仅作参考,并自行承担全部风险与责任。