7月14日财经关注:美国PPI数据降温通胀,提振金价至高位

7月13日财经关注:CPI数据低于预期,拖累美元

2023/07/14

编辑:Clan

The U.S. June PPI data was released overnight, which is the producer price index. When producers charge higher prices for products and services, higher cost inflation will be passed on to consumers. This data, like CPI data, can be used as an important indicator of inflation levels.

The announced value this time was 0.1%, while the previous value and expected value were 1.1% and 0.4% respectively. U.S. producer prices barely rose in June, with the year-on-year increase the smallest in the past three years. This further proves that the U.S. economy has entered a de-inflation era.

Ahead of the Labor Department’s producer price report on Thursday, earlier data on Wednesday showed consumer prices rose only slightly in June. A succession of softer inflation data could push the Federal Reserve closer to ending its fastest tightening of monetary policy since the 1980s. “The Fed is expected to raise interest rates at the end of the month, probably for the last time in this cycle,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank. “Things could still change if another shock puts new upward pressure on prices, but with the economy slowing and a small amount of idle capacity emerging, the risk now looks low.”

 

Inflation is receding as supply chain bottlenecks disappear and rising interest rates slow demand for goods. Last year’s huge increase has become the basis for calculation. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report released overnight also acknowledged that price pressures had eased. This has fueled speculation that the Fed’s tightening cycle is coming to an end. Since March 2022, the Federal Reserve has raised its policy rate by 500 basis points. Financial markets have priced in a 25 basis point rate hike at the July policy meeting, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Falling prices for industrial goods and falling freight costs suggest the economy is slowing, potentially eliminating the need for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates beyond this month.

 

Because cooling U.S. inflation has boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates only once this year, thereby weakening the U.S. dollar’s yield advantage over other currencies, the U.S. dollar index fell to its lowest since April 2022 on Thursday and is on track to hit its biggest single day since 2023. Weekly decline. The U.S. dollar index continued its decline on Friday, hitting a new low of 99.63 since mid-April 2002. Previously, the U.S. dollar index fell for five consecutive trading days and will set its largest weekly decline since 2023. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to a two-week low on Thursday, while the yield on the two-year Treasury note fell to its lowest since mid-June.

Brad Bechtel, global head of foreign exchange at Jefferies Financial Group in New York, said, “I very much understand why the dollar is falling, and it is very convincing for dollar bears given the data we are seeing. In the short term, we will See further dollar weakness.” But he noted that the dollar will find support in some way because the U.S. economy is still outperforming the rest of the world. “The U.S. economy is holding up very well. We’re talking about a soft landing, not a hard landing. The data continues to be good. So there’s a lot going on in the U.S. economy right now, and the Fed is still going to raise interest rates in July.”

 

“It’s hard to be super negative on the dollar as the U.S. economy is doing OK. The European economy also performed well last year and early this year relative to expectations,” said Ugo Lancioni, head of currency management and portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman in Milan. , “But we’ve actually seen some deterioration in the European data. So it’s not a straight line (downward) for the dollar.”

 

The U.S. dollar and U.S. bond yields fell, and market expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon end its interest rate hike cycle boosted gold prices. Spot gold prices rose to a new high of $1,963.23 per ounce in the past month. Gold prices are currently hovering near one-month highs. Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA, said in a research report that gold prices are struggling near the resistance level of $1,960, and breaking through the key levels around $1,980 and $2,000 may indicate that gold prices return to the bullish zone, “although gold prices may face some resistance during this period. “.

 

Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, said: “The gold market rebounded strongly after yesterday’s data. If gold can get another boost, there will be a chance to test the $2,000 mark, but we are facing many different resistance points. “

 

Brian Lan of Singapore-based trader GoldSilver Central said attention remains focused on the Federal Reserve’s July policy meeting, which could determine the near-term direction of gold prices. While gold prices could move higher closer to the $2,000 mark, a decline is more likely this quarter, so a drop to $1,800 is still possible. He added that the Fed was still likely to adopt a “cautious tone.”

On this trading day, you need to pay attention to the monthly rate of the US import price index in June and the initial value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in July. Pay attention to the G20 Finance Ministers and Governors and Vice-Presidents meeting, and the EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meeting.

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点,与Rallyville Markets无关。Rallyville Markets对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立,不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证,且不构成任何投资建议,请读者仅作参考,并自行承担全部风险与责任。

The U.S. June PPI data was released overnight, which is the producer price index. When producers charge higher prices for products and services, higher cost inflation will be passed on to consumers. This data, like CPI data, can be used as an important indicator of inflation levels.

The announced value this time was 0.1%, while the previous value and expected value were 1.1% and 0.4% respectively. U.S. producer prices barely rose in June, with the year-on-year increase the smallest in the past three years. This further proves that the U.S. economy has entered a de-inflation era.

 

Ahead of the Labor Department’s producer price report on Thursday, earlier data on Wednesday showed consumer prices rose only slightly in June. A succession of softer inflation data could push the Federal Reserve closer to ending its fastest tightening of monetary policy since the 1980s. “The Fed is expected to raise interest rates at the end of the month, probably for the last time in this cycle,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank. “Things could still change if another shock puts new upward pressure on prices, but with the economy slowing and a small amount of idle capacity emerging, the risk now looks low.”

 

Inflation is receding as supply chain bottlenecks disappear and rising interest rates slow demand for goods. Last year’s huge increase has become the basis for calculation. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report released overnight also acknowledged that price pressures had eased. This has fueled speculation that the Fed’s tightening cycle is coming to an end. Since March 2022, the Federal Reserve has raised its policy rate by 500 basis points. Financial markets have priced in a 25 basis point rate hike at the July policy meeting, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Falling prices for industrial goods and falling freight costs suggest the economy is slowing, potentially eliminating the need for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates beyond this month.

 

Because cooling U.S. inflation has boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates only once this year, thereby weakening the U.S. dollar’s yield advantage over other currencies, the U.S. dollar index fell to its lowest since April 2022 on Thursday and is on track to hit its biggest single day since 2023. Weekly decline. The U.S. dollar index continued its decline on Friday, hitting a new low of 99.63 since mid-April 2002. Previously, the U.S. dollar index fell for five consecutive trading days and will set its largest weekly decline since 2023. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to a two-week low on Thursday, while the yield on the two-year Treasury note fell to its lowest since mid-June.

Brad Bechtel, global head of foreign exchange at Jefferies Financial Group in New York, said, “I very much understand why the dollar is falling, and it is very convincing for dollar bears given the data we are seeing. In the short term, we will See further dollar weakness.” But he noted that the dollar will find support in some way because the U.S. economy is still outperforming the rest of the world. “The U.S. economy is holding up very well. We’re talking about a soft landing, not a hard landing. The data continues to be good. So there’s a lot going on in the U.S. economy right now, and the Fed is still going to raise interest rates in July.”

 

“It’s hard to be super negative on the dollar as the U.S. economy is doing OK. The European economy also performed well last year and early this year relative to expectations,” said Ugo Lancioni, head of currency management and portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman in Milan. , “But we’ve actually seen some deterioration in the European data. So it’s not a straight line (downward) for the dollar.”

 

The U.S. dollar and U.S. bond yields fell, and market expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon end its interest rate hike cycle boosted gold prices. Spot gold prices rose to a new high of $1,963.23 per ounce in the past month. Gold prices are currently hovering near one-month highs. Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA, said in a research report that gold prices are struggling near the resistance level of $1,960, and breaking through the key levels around $1,980 and $2,000 may indicate that gold prices return to the bullish zone, “although gold prices may face some resistance during this period. “.

 

Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, said: “The gold market rebounded strongly after yesterday’s data. If gold can get another boost, there will be a chance to test the $2,000 mark, but we are facing many different resistance points. “

 

Brian Lan of Singapore-based trader GoldSilver Central said attention remains focused on the Federal Reserve’s July policy meeting, which could determine the near-term direction of gold prices. While gold prices could move higher closer to the $2,000 mark, a decline is more likely this quarter, so a drop to $1,800 is still possible. He added that the Fed was still likely to adopt a “cautious tone.”

On this trading day, you need to pay attention to the monthly rate of the US import price index in June and the initial value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in July. Pay attention to the G20 Finance Ministers and Governors and Vice-Presidents meeting, and the EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meeting.

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点,与Rallyville Markets无关。Rallyville Markets对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立,不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证,且不构成任何投资建议,请读者仅作参考,并自行承担全部风险与责任。