8月25日财经关注:市场聚焦鲍威尔讲话

8月25日财经关注:市场聚焦鲍威尔讲话

2023/08/25

编辑:Clan

On August 25, the U.S. dollar index surged slightly, once reaching its highest level since June 8 to 104.13, and is currently trading around 104.10. The U.S. index closed up 0.59% on Thursday at 103.98. Spot gold fluctuated within a narrow range and was trading near the 1916 price position as of press time.

The market is focusing on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting of Global Central Banks on Friday night to learn about the Federal Reserve’s latest economic policy thoughts: whether the Federal Reserve has entered the end of raising interest rates and how long it plans to keep interest rates at high levels. Most analysts on Wall Street believe Powell is likely to talk about where he sees interest rates not in the coming months, but in the longer term. Specifically, they are looking for guidance on the natural level of interest rates that is neither restrictive nor stimulative.

Market analyst Yohay Elam listed three possible scenarios and their impact on the dollar:

The most likely scenario is that Powell emphasizes the high degree of uncertainty, acknowledges only recent developments that investors may be concerned about, declines to comment on future policy, and insists that data will determine everything, in which case , the dollar will rise; if there is a hawkish outcome, it will be that Powell emphasizes the recent strength of the economy and dismisses the recent improvement in inflation, the dollar will rise, and gold will fall; if there is a dovish outcome, it will be if Powell Celebrating falling inflation and underlying price pressures that are about to fall, there is a low chance that if it happens, the dollar will plummet and gold will rise.

Since taking over as Fed chairman in 2018, Powell has used his annual Jackson Hole speech to push a policy agenda that stretches from one end of the policy arena to the other. This year, many expect Powell to change his stance. With U.S. inflation decelerating and the economic fundamentals remaining solid, Powell may feel less need to guide the public and financial markets and more to adopt the posture of existing monetary policy. Powell’s Fed is largely leaning toward keeping interest rates on hold, although a rate cut is possible next year. Yet the Fed may now be inclined to suggest it has largely won the war on inflation, something many market participants believe would be unwise.

Despite expectations that Powell would proceed with caution, markets were in for an unpleasant surprise on Thursday, with U.S. stocks selling off and U.S. Treasury yields climbing. 

“I just think he’s going to try to be as middle ground as possible,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at SMBC Nikko Securities. “It gives him more options. He doesn’t want to get himself into trouble one way or the other.”

“I don’t know how hawkish he needs to be because by definition the funds rate is clearly in a restrictive range and the market has finally accepted the Fed’s own forecast that it won’t cut rates until around the middle or second half of next year,” LaVorgna said. Adding: “As a result, the Fed does not appear to have to push back against market expectations for imminent policy easing, which has largely been the case for much of the past 12 months.”

Stuart Cole, chief macroeconomist at Equiti Capital, said: “I think what we saw was mainly positioning ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium.” He said: “No one knew what Powell was going to say, so the default currency to buy was Dollar.”

    

Philadelphia Fed President Harker and Boston Fed President Collins on Thursday tentatively accepted a surge in bond market yields as a complement to the Fed’s efforts to slow economic growth and return inflation to its 2% target. They also noted that further interest rate hikes were likely not needed. 

    

Data on Thursday showed U.S. initial jobless claims fell for a second straight week, as labor market conditions remained tight despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes. The U.S. Department of Labor said Thursday that initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 10,000 in the week ended August 19 to a seasonally adjusted 230,000. The number of claims for the previous week was increased by 1,000. Economists had expected the number of initial claims in the latest week to be 240,000.

Cole said: “I think the jobless claims report may have also provided some support for the dollar. These data were not as weak as people feared and were somewhat offset by the downward revision of yesterday’s employment data.” He said: ” But overall, the market’s reaction to the data was rather muted, suggesting that the Jackson Hole symposium was the main focus.”

This week’s weaker-than-expected data from European countries and the United States dampened investors’ investment in riskier currencies and turned to support the safe-haven dollar.

GBP/USD fell on Thursday, closing down 0.97% at 1.2598. The poor PMI data has tempered expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of England, putting pressure on the pound. The market predicts that the probability of the Bank of England keeping interest rates unchanged on September 21 is 12%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 88%. In a survey released on Thursday, all 62 economists predicted the Bank of England would raise interest rates next month. The latest news is that traders have reduced their bets on the Bank of England raising interest rates, and now believe that the possibility of interest rates peaking at 6% is less than half. At the same time, British factory output fell, putting the economy on the path to recession, prompting the market to lower expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of England. Market analysts said that if the Bank of England unexpectedly behaves dovishly next month and keeps interest rates at 5.25% instead of raising interest rates for the 15th consecutive time, the pound may be hit, prompting speculators to sell long positions in the pound, dragging down the pound. Toward 1.2308 (May low).

The euro fell against the dollar on Thursday, closing down 0.48% at 1.0810. The euro fell slightly against the U.S. dollar on Friday, hitting a low of 1.0792, a new low since June 15. The latest PMI data showed that the economic recession in the euro zone deepened in August, and the euro was suppressed as a result. Eurozone Purchasing Managers Index survey data released by S&P Global showed that the data fell to 47 in August from 48.6 in July, hitting the lowest level since November 2020, while a PMI below 50 usually indicates economic recession.

Data also showed that the euro zone’s services sector fell into decline in August, marking the first contraction in euro zone service sector activity since December last year. The euro zone economy is shrinking at its fastest pace in three years as a sharp decline in manufacturing begins to spread to services. Penson macroeconomists Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono said in a report that whether the European Central Bank will raise interest rates in September is undecided, but the burden of proof now falls on the hawks. Negotiated wage growth in the euro zone held steady at 4.3% year-on-year in the second quarter, a figure that dovish ECB officials will take note of as a reason to end rate hikes.

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点,与Rallyville Markets无关。Rallyville Markets对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立,不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证,且不构成任何投资建议,请读者仅作参考,并自行承担全部风险与责任。

On August 25, the U.S. dollar index surged slightly, once reaching its highest level since June 8 to 104.13, and is currently trading around 104.10. The U.S. index closed up 0.59% on Thursday at 103.98. Spot gold fluctuated within a narrow range and was trading near the 1916 price position as of press time.

The market is focusing on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting of Global Central Banks on Friday night to learn about the Federal Reserve’s latest economic policy thoughts: whether the Federal Reserve has entered the end of raising interest rates and how long it plans to keep interest rates at high levels. Most analysts on Wall Street believe Powell is likely to talk about where he sees interest rates not in the coming months, but in the longer term. Specifically, they are looking for guidance on the natural level of interest rates that is neither restrictive nor stimulative.

Market analyst Yohay Elam listed three possible scenarios and their impact on the dollar:

The most likely scenario is that Powell emphasizes the high degree of uncertainty, acknowledges only recent developments that investors may be concerned about, declines to comment on future policy, and insists that data will determine everything, in which case , the dollar will rise; if there is a hawkish outcome, it will be that Powell emphasizes the recent strength of the economy and dismisses the recent improvement in inflation, the dollar will rise, and gold will fall; if there is a dovish outcome, it will be if Powell Celebrating falling inflation and underlying price pressures that are about to fall, there is a low chance that if it happens, the dollar will plummet and gold will rise.

Since taking over as Fed chairman in 2018, Powell has used his annual Jackson Hole speech to push a policy agenda that stretches from one end of the policy arena to the other. This year, many expect Powell to change his stance. With U.S. inflation decelerating and the economic fundamentals remaining solid, Powell may feel less need to guide the public and financial markets and more to adopt the posture of existing monetary policy. Powell’s Fed is largely leaning toward keeping interest rates on hold, although a rate cut is possible next year. Yet the Fed may now be inclined to suggest it has largely won the war on inflation, something many market participants believe would be unwise.

Despite expectations that Powell would proceed with caution, markets were in for an unpleasant surprise on Thursday, with U.S. stocks selling off and U.S. Treasury yields climbing. 

“I just think he’s going to try to be as middle ground as possible,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at SMBC Nikko Securities. “It gives him more options. He doesn’t want to get himself into trouble one way or the other.”

“I don’t know how hawkish he needs to be because by definition the funds rate is clearly in a restrictive range and the market has finally accepted the Fed’s own forecast that it won’t cut rates until around the middle or second half of next year,” LaVorgna said. Adding: “As a result, the Fed does not appear to have to push back against market expectations for imminent policy easing, which has largely been the case for much of the past 12 months.”

Stuart Cole, chief macroeconomist at Equiti Capital, said: “I think what we saw was mainly positioning ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium.” He said: “No one knew what Powell was going to say, so the default currency to buy was Dollar.”

    

Philadelphia Fed President Harker and Boston Fed President Collins on Thursday tentatively accepted a surge in bond market yields as a complement to the Fed’s efforts to slow economic growth and return inflation to its 2% target. They also noted that further interest rate hikes were likely not needed. 

    

Data on Thursday showed U.S. initial jobless claims fell for a second straight week, as labor market conditions remained tight despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes. The U.S. Department of Labor said Thursday that initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 10,000 in the week ended August 19 to a seasonally adjusted 230,000. The number of claims for the previous week was increased by 1,000. Economists had expected the number of initial claims in the latest week to be 240,000.

Cole said: “I think the jobless claims report may have also provided some support for the dollar. These data were not as weak as people feared and were somewhat offset by the downward revision of yesterday’s employment data.” He said: ” But overall, the market’s reaction to the data was rather muted, suggesting that the Jackson Hole symposium was the main focus.”

This week’s weaker-than-expected data from European countries and the United States dampened investors’ investment in riskier currencies and turned to support the safe-haven dollar.

GBP/USD fell on Thursday, closing down 0.97% at 1.2598. The poor PMI data has tempered expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of England, putting pressure on the pound. The market predicts that the probability of the Bank of England keeping interest rates unchanged on September 21 is 12%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 88%. In a survey released on Thursday, all 62 economists predicted the Bank of England would raise interest rates next month. The latest news is that traders have reduced their bets on the Bank of England raising interest rates, and now believe that the possibility of interest rates peaking at 6% is less than half. At the same time, British factory output fell, putting the economy on the path to recession, prompting the market to lower expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of England. Market analysts said that if the Bank of England unexpectedly behaves dovishly next month and keeps interest rates at 5.25% instead of raising interest rates for the 15th consecutive time, the pound may be hit, prompting speculators to sell long positions in the pound, dragging down the pound. Toward 1.2308 (May low).

The euro fell against the dollar on Thursday, closing down 0.48% at 1.0810. The euro fell slightly against the U.S. dollar on Friday, hitting a low of 1.0792, a new low since June 15. The latest PMI data showed that the economic recession in the euro zone deepened in August, and the euro was suppressed as a result. Eurozone Purchasing Managers Index survey data released by S&P Global showed that the data fell to 47 in August from 48.6 in July, hitting the lowest level since November 2020, while a PMI below 50 usually indicates economic recession.

Data also showed that the euro zone’s services sector fell into decline in August, marking the first contraction in euro zone service sector activity since December last year. The euro zone economy is shrinking at its fastest pace in three years as a sharp decline in manufacturing begins to spread to services. Penson macroeconomists Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono said in a report that whether the European Central Bank will raise interest rates in September is undecided, but the burden of proof now falls on the hawks. Negotiated wage growth in the euro zone held steady at 4.3% year-on-year in the second quarter, a figure that dovish ECB officials will take note of as a reason to end rate hikes.

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点,与Rallyville Markets无关。Rallyville Markets对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立,不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证,且不构成任何投资建议,请读者仅作参考,并自行承担全部风险与责任。