1月5日财经关注:“小非农”超预期,聚焦今晚非农

1月5日财经关注:“小非农”超预期,聚焦今晚非农

2024/01/05

        

U.S. companies increased hiring activity in December, a sign that demand for workers remains strong amid a cooling labor market. The latest ADP data showed that private sector employment increased by 164,000 people last month, compared with market expectations of 115,000. This growth is mainly led by the services sector, including leisure and hospitality, education and medical services. Despite signs that labor demand is slowing, companies are hiring at a solid pace, unemployment remains low and workers’ wages continue to rise above inflation.

Analysts pointed out that the latest labor market data did not change the rules of the game, but still posed a challenge to the more aggressive pricing of interest rate cuts. ADP data beat expectations for the first time in five months, but the surprise was small. Both initial and continuing jobless claims were lower than expected. Still, it’s not surprising that Treasury yields rose slightly after the data, as markets remain optimistic about the outlook for the Fed’s easing policy.

The commentary said that strong ADP employment growth casts doubt on whether the Fed will start cutting interest rates this year as early as the market currently expects and whether the rate cuts will be as deep as expected. After the data was released, U.S. Treasury bond prices fell further and yields expanded their intraday gains. The U.S. services PMI released thereafter hit a five-month high and was in the expansion range for seven consecutive months, which also pushed U.S. bond yields upward. U.S. bond yields once rose about 10 basis points from daily lows. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose above 4.0% for the second consecutive day.

After the release of the ADP report and the service PMI, most major U.S. stock indexes fell. Technology stocks continued to drag down the Nasdaq and S&P. For the second time this week, Apple was downgraded by an agency due to concerns about iPhone demand, becoming the least popular technology on Wall Street. Giant, its stock price fell by more than 5% this week, and its market value evaporated by more than 150 billion US dollars.

The analysis noted that despite some signs of slowing labor demand, companies are still hiring at a healthy pace. In terms of company size, employment in medium-sized enterprises with 50-249 employees increased the most, reaching 58,000, while employment in large-scale enterprises with 250-499 employees decreased, with a decrease of 5,000 people.

ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said:

“We are returning to a labor market that is very consistent with pre-pandemic hiring. Wages have not driven recent inflation, and now that wage growth has fallen back, the risk of any wage-price spiral has all but disappeared.”

Shortly after the ADP data was released, the United States announced that 202,000 people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time last week, lower than the expected 216,000.

Analyst Cameron Crise said that the labor market data released today did not change the rules of the game for the Federal Reserve, but it raised challenges to some of the more aggressive pricing of interest rate cuts:

“The ADP data beat expectations for the first time in five months, with a small surprise. Initial jobless claims were lower than expected. Still, as markets remain very optimistic about the prospect of Fed easing, this provides a window for such data “It’s an asymmetric reaction mechanism, so it’s not terribly surprising to see Treasury yields rise slightly after the data.”

And just tonight, the U.S. Department of Labor will release non-farm employment data that attracts more market attention. There may be big differences between the two employment reports. The market generally expects non-agricultural employment to increase by 170,000 in December, while new non-agricultural employment in November was 199,000.

Federal Reserve officials are paying close attention to the jobs report. According to the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting released early yesterday morning, officials believe that the labor market will be better able to restore balance from the huge supply and demand mismatch of the past few years.

Although the U.S. economy is cooling, inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% annual target. The labor market is also relatively strong, and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls data is expected to provide more clues in this regard. Expectations for key non-farm payrolls data have made investors cautious about buying outside the U.S. dollar, creating more headwinds for non-yielding assets such as gold.

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点,与Rallyville Markets无关。Rallyville Markets对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立,不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证,且不构成任何投资建议,请读者仅作参考,并自行承担全部风险与责任。

U.S. companies increased hiring activity in December, a sign that demand for workers remains strong amid a cooling labor market. The latest ADP data showed that private sector employment increased by 164,000 people last month, compared with market expectations of 115,000. This growth is mainly led by the services sector, including leisure and hospitality, education and medical services. Despite signs that labor demand is slowing, companies are hiring at a solid pace, unemployment remains low and workers’ wages continue to rise above inflation.

Analysts pointed out that the latest labor market data did not change the rules of the game, but still posed a challenge to the more aggressive pricing of interest rate cuts. ADP data beat expectations for the first time in five months, but the surprise was small. Both initial and continuing jobless claims were lower than expected. Still, it’s not surprising that Treasury yields rose slightly after the data, as markets remain optimistic about the outlook for the Fed’s easing policy.

The commentary said that strong ADP employment growth casts doubt on whether the Fed will start cutting interest rates this year as early as the market currently expects and whether the rate cuts will be as deep as expected. After the data was released, U.S. Treasury bond prices fell further and yields expanded their intraday gains. The U.S. services PMI released thereafter hit a five-month high and was in the expansion range for seven consecutive months, which also pushed U.S. bond yields upward. U.S. bond yields once rose about 10 basis points from daily lows. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose above 4.0% for the second consecutive day.

After the release of the ADP report and the service PMI, most major U.S. stock indexes fell. Technology stocks continued to drag down the Nasdaq and S&P. For the second time this week, Apple was downgraded by an agency due to concerns about iPhone demand, becoming the least popular technology on Wall Street. Giant, its stock price fell by more than 5% this week, and its market value evaporated by more than 150 billion US dollars.

The analysis noted that despite some signs of slowing labor demand, companies are still hiring at a healthy pace. In terms of company size, employment in medium-sized enterprises with 50-249 employees increased the most, reaching 58,000, while employment in large-scale enterprises with 250-499 employees decreased, with a decrease of 5,000 people.

ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said:

“We are returning to a labor market that is very consistent with pre-pandemic hiring. Wages have not driven recent inflation, and now that wage growth has fallen back, the risk of any wage-price spiral has all but disappeared.”

Shortly after the ADP data was released, the United States announced that 202,000 people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time last week, lower than the expected 216,000.

Analyst Cameron Crise said that the labor market data released today did not change the rules of the game for the Federal Reserve, but it raised challenges to some of the more aggressive pricing of interest rate cuts:

“The ADP data beat expectations for the first time in five months, with a small surprise. Initial jobless claims were lower than expected. Still, as markets remain very optimistic about the prospect of Fed easing, this provides a window for such data “It’s an asymmetric reaction mechanism, so it’s not terribly surprising to see Treasury yields rise slightly after the data.”

And just tonight, the U.S. Department of Labor will release non-farm employment data that attracts more market attention. There may be big differences between the two employment reports. The market generally expects non-agricultural employment to increase by 170,000 in December, while new non-agricultural employment in November was 199,000.

Federal Reserve officials are paying close attention to the jobs report. According to the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting released early yesterday morning, officials believe that the labor market will be better able to restore balance from the huge supply and demand mismatch of the past few years.

Although the U.S. economy is cooling, inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% annual target. The labor market is also relatively strong, and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls data is expected to provide more clues in this regard. Expectations for key non-farm payrolls data have made investors cautious about buying outside the U.S. dollar, creating more headwinds for non-yielding assets such as gold.

 

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点,与Rallyville Markets无关。Rallyville Markets对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立,不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证,且不构成任何投资建议,请读者仅作参考,并自行承担全部风险与责任。