1月16日财经关注:地缘政治威胁升级,黄金避险情绪升温

1月16日财经关注:地缘政治威胁升级,黄金避险情绪升温

2024/01/16

        

Gold’s appeal has also increased as geopolitical tensions escalate in the Middle East. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has exceeded 100 days, and Israel continues its fierce offensive. The possible involvement of Iran in Israel’s war with Hamas has deepened concerns about the escalation of the war in Gaza, while the Houthi militia has threatened to respond to US air strikes in Yemen. The risks continue to rise. Gold tends to perform well during periods of economic turmoil, and its reliability helps offset the risk of greater asset volatility in conditions such as geopolitical uncertainty.

Oil prices fell despite Houthi attacks on U.S. merchant ships as weak fundamentals offset the risk that air strikes by the U.S. and its allies could spark a wider conflict and disrupt crude flows in the Middle East. Meanwhile, European natural gas futures fell to their lowest levels since August, underscoring the region’s success in increasing supplies since the 2022 energy crisis.

The number of ships transporting crude oil and petroleum products through the Bab el-Mandab Strait in the southern Red Sea is declining, according to data from analytics firm Vortexa as of January 12. In the first 12 days of this year, the number of ships transporting clean petroleum products (excluding biodiesel, chemicals and lubricants) fell by 39% compared with the same period in 2023. During the same period, the number of ships carrying crude oil and highly polluting petroleum products such as fuel oil fell by 12%.

Several oil tankers avoided the Red Sea on Friday and several tankers changed course after the United States and Britain launched strikes against Houthi rebel targets in Yemen. The conflict was triggered by attacks by the Houthis in response to Israeli military operations against Hamas in Gaza. The conflict also hampered at least four LNG tankers sailing in the area. The U.S. Department of Transportation warned that U.S. merchant ships may be retaliated by Yemen’s Houthi armed forces and that U.S. cargo ships need to avoid the Red Sea route until further notice. The previous advice was not to use the Red Sea route within 72 hours.

The chief negotiator for Yemen’s Houthis warned on Monday that attacks on ships heading toward Israel would continue. The U.S. military said on social media platform

No oil supply losses have occurred so far, but shipping disruptions have indirectly tightened the market as ships have to take longer routes to avoid the Red Sea, leaving at least 35 million barrels of crude stranded at sea, taking longer and costing more to reach their destinations. high.

As the situation in the Red Sea further intensifies, the impact on countries surrounding the Red Sea has also become more apparent. On the 14th local time, Jordanian Prime Minister Khasawneh said while presiding over a cabinet meeting that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and continued tensions in the Red Sea may have an impact on Jordan’s domestic economy. According to estimates from multiple Jordanian departments of transportation, industry, trade and supply chain, Jordan’s transportation costs for goods imported from Southeast Asia have increased by about 160% to 170%, and transportation costs for goods imported from North America and Europe have also increased by 60% to 100%. In addition, the cost of insurance for transported goods has also increased. Mohamed Kawasmi, a member of the Jordan Chamber of Commerce, said that if the situation in the Red Sea continues to be tense, it may trigger inflation and other consequences, and affect Jordan’s pillar industries including tourism, further impacting the Jordanian economy.

In terms of crude oil supply, Russia is considering a ban on gasoline exports following the accident at the Norsi refinery. In Libya, protesters against alleged corruption threatened to shut down two more oil and gas facilities after they shut down the 300,000 barrels per day Sharara oil field on January 7.

The outlook for economic conditions is also difficult to predict, with European Central Bank officials warning that it is too early to discuss cutting interest rates.

Among European stock trends, French aircraft manufacturer Dassault Aviation SA reported a drop in jet orders for 2023, causing the company’s shares to fall. Delivery Hero SE and Just Eat Takeaway.com NV fell after analysts at BNP Paribas Exane recommended avoiding the European food delivery industry. Volvo Cars extended losses triggered on Friday when it said it would temporarily halt some production due to shipping delays caused by the Red Sea attack.

Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity Group, said: “Spot gold is also rising as the market still holds out hope that the Federal Reserve will cut benchmark interest rates as early as March.” Tan added: “As long as the Federal Reserve can act in line with market expectations, gold will hit a record The window for new record highs should remain open.”

On December 4, gold prices hit a record high of $2,144.68 per ounce. Short-term U.S. Treasury yields have been moving lower over the past few months as traders continue to digest the impact of a series of U.S. interest rate cuts. Data released on Friday showed that U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in December, sending 10-year Treasury bond yields lower. The recent decline in U.S. Treasury bond yields has been driven by a combination of safe-haven buying, Middle East concerns and interest rate expectations. Gold provided support.

According to the latest data from CME’s “Fed Watch”, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in February is 95.3%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 4.7%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged by March is 27.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut is 69%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point interest rate cut is 3.3%. As bets deepen on the Fed’s interest rate cuts, higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of investing in non-yielding gold.

Economists at Société Générale said, “Gold has been trading sharply sideways since 2020. It attempted to break out of the range last month but faced strong resistance near $2,135. The most recent breakout attempt was also at $2,088 Gradually weakening around the US dollar. A sideways movement in gold prices is taking shape.”

OANDA senior market analyst Craig Erlam said he does not expect a huge divergence in U.S. and European monetary policies. While the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates more than the European Central Bank this year, Erlam said he does not expect this to lead to a significant weakening of the dollar, providing little new momentum for gold. “I think gold prices are up or down right now because momentum seems to be stalling,” he said. “How much price has the market already priced in following last year’s rise in gold prices? The question is, has gold reached its near-term potential?”

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点,与Rallyville Markets无关。Rallyville Markets对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立,不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证,且不构成任何投资建议,请读者仅作参考,并自行承担全部风险与责任。

Gold’s appeal has also increased as geopolitical tensions escalate in the Middle East. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has exceeded 100 days, and Israel continues its fierce offensive. The possible involvement of Iran in Israel’s war with Hamas has deepened concerns about the escalation of the war in Gaza, while the Houthi militia has threatened to respond to US air strikes in Yemen. The risks continue to rise. Gold tends to perform well during periods of economic turmoil, and its reliability helps offset the risk of greater asset volatility in conditions such as geopolitical uncertainty.

Oil prices fell despite Houthi attacks on U.S. merchant ships as weak fundamentals offset the risk that air strikes by the U.S. and its allies could spark a wider conflict and disrupt crude flows in the Middle East. Meanwhile, European natural gas futures fell to their lowest levels since August, underscoring the region’s success in increasing supplies since the 2022 energy crisis.

The number of ships transporting crude oil and petroleum products through the Bab el-Mandab Strait in the southern Red Sea is declining, according to data from analytics firm Vortexa as of January 12. In the first 12 days of this year, the number of ships transporting clean petroleum products (excluding biodiesel, chemicals and lubricants) fell by 39% compared with the same period in 2023. During the same period, the number of ships carrying crude oil and highly polluting petroleum products such as fuel oil fell by 12%.

Several oil tankers avoided the Red Sea on Friday and several tankers changed course after the United States and Britain launched strikes against Houthi rebel targets in Yemen. The conflict was triggered by attacks by the Houthis in response to Israeli military operations against Hamas in Gaza. The conflict also hampered at least four LNG tankers sailing in the area. The U.S. Department of Transportation warned that U.S. merchant ships may be retaliated by Yemen’s Houthi armed forces and that U.S. cargo ships need to avoid the Red Sea route until further notice. The previous advice was not to use the Red Sea route within 72 hours.

The chief negotiator for Yemen’s Houthis warned on Monday that attacks on ships heading toward Israel would continue. The U.S. military said on social media platform

No oil supply losses have occurred so far, but shipping disruptions have indirectly tightened the market as ships have to take longer routes to avoid the Red Sea, leaving at least 35 million barrels of crude stranded at sea, taking longer and costing more to reach their destinations. high.

As the situation in the Red Sea further intensifies, the impact on countries surrounding the Red Sea has also become more apparent. On the 14th local time, Jordanian Prime Minister Khasawneh said while presiding over a cabinet meeting that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and continued tensions in the Red Sea may have an impact on Jordan’s domestic economy. According to estimates from multiple Jordanian departments of transportation, industry, trade and supply chain, Jordan’s transportation costs for goods imported from Southeast Asia have increased by about 160% to 170%, and transportation costs for goods imported from North America and Europe have also increased by 60% to 100%. In addition, the cost of insurance for transported goods has also increased. Mohamed Kawasmi, a member of the Jordan Chamber of Commerce, said that if the situation in the Red Sea continues to be tense, it may trigger inflation and other consequences, and affect Jordan’s pillar industries including tourism, further impacting the Jordanian economy.

In terms of crude oil supply, Russia is considering a ban on gasoline exports following the accident at the Norsi refinery. In Libya, protesters against alleged corruption threatened to shut down two more oil and gas facilities after they shut down the 300,000 barrels per day Sharara oil field on January 7.

The outlook for economic conditions is also difficult to predict, with European Central Bank officials warning that it is too early to discuss cutting interest rates.

Among European stock trends, French aircraft manufacturer Dassault Aviation SA reported a drop in jet orders for 2023, causing the company’s shares to fall. Delivery Hero SE and Just Eat Takeaway.com NV fell after analysts at BNP Paribas Exane recommended avoiding the European food delivery industry. Volvo Cars extended losses triggered on Friday when it said it would temporarily halt some production due to shipping delays caused by the Red Sea attack.

Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity Group, said: “Spot gold is also rising as the market still holds out hope that the Federal Reserve will cut benchmark interest rates as early as March.” Tan added: “As long as the Federal Reserve can act in line with market expectations, gold will hit a record The window for new record highs should remain open.”

On December 4, gold prices hit a record high of $2,144.68 per ounce. Short-term U.S. Treasury yields have been moving lower over the past few months as traders continue to digest the impact of a series of U.S. interest rate cuts. Data released on Friday showed that U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in December, sending 10-year Treasury bond yields lower. The recent decline in U.S. Treasury bond yields has been driven by a combination of safe-haven buying, Middle East concerns and interest rate expectations. Gold provided support.

According to the latest data from CME’s “Fed Watch”, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in February is 95.3%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 4.7%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged by March is 27.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut is 69%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point interest rate cut is 3.3%. As bets deepen on the Fed’s interest rate cuts, higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of investing in non-yielding gold.

Economists at Société Générale said, “Gold has been trading sharply sideways since 2020. It attempted to break out of the range last month but faced strong resistance near $2,135. The most recent breakout attempt was also at $2,088 Gradually weakening around the US dollar. A sideways movement in gold prices is taking shape.”

OANDA senior market analyst Craig Erlam said he does not expect a huge divergence in U.S. and European monetary policies. While the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates more than the European Central Bank this year, Erlam said he does not expect this to lead to a significant weakening of the dollar, providing little new momentum for gold. “I think gold prices are up or down right now because momentum seems to be stalling,” he said. “How much price has the market already priced in following last year’s rise in gold prices? The question is, has gold reached its near-term potential?”

 

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点,与Rallyville Markets无关。Rallyville Markets对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立,不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证,且不构成任何投资建议,请读者仅作参考,并自行承担全部风险与责任。