1月19日财经关注:中东局势复杂化,避险情绪助金价

1月19日财经关注:中东局势复杂化,避险情绪助金价

2024/01/19

        

Gold prices were higher and silver was slightly higher during the session on Thursday. Gold saw some safe-haven demand as risk aversion rose later in the week amid more military action in the Middle East.

 

In terms of the situation in the Middle East, Pakistan launched air strikes against separatist militants in Iran on Thursday. Two days ago, Tehran said it attacked another group’s base in Pakistan.

 

Iranian media said several missiles hit a village in Sistan-Baluchestan province on the border with Pakistan, killing at least nine people, including four children.

 

The tit-for-tat attacks are the most high-profile cross-border incursions in recent years, raising concerns about wider instability in the Middle East since war broke out between Israel and Hamas on October 7.

 

Tehran strongly condemned the attack, saying civilians had been killed, and summoned Pakistan’s top diplomat to Iran, the charge d’affaires, to demand an explanation.

 

Iranian Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi told state television: “Information has been received that four children, three women and two men were killed in an explosion in a village, all of whom were It’s a foreigner.”

 

Alireza Marhamati, deputy governor of Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan Province in charge of security affairs, pointed out that an explosion also occurred near the city of Sarawan in Sistan and Baluchestan Province, but it caused no casualties.

 

Iran said on Tuesday it had struck targets in Pakistan it said were bases of the jihadist group Jaish al-Adl. Pakistan strongly condemned the Iranian attack.

 

Nuclear-armed Pakistan said civilians were hit and two children were killed. Pakistan recalled its ambassador to Iran on Wednesday, protesting Iran’s “blatant violation” of its sovereignty.

 

In addition to the conflict between Pakistan and Iran, the situation in the Red Sea is also of concern. The United States on Wednesday added Yemen-based Houthi rebels to its list of terrorist groups after the militants attacked a U.S. ship in the Red Sea for the second time this week.

 

Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said there is too much uncertainty and geopolitical tensions have inadvertently coordinated efforts to keep gold prices in the $2,000 range.

 

On Thursday, the number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the United States fell to 187,000 in the week ended January 13 from the previous value of 203,000, which was better than market expectations of 207,000. Additionally, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey improved to -10.6 in January from -12.8 in December. Upbeat economic data bolstered arguments surrounding longer-term policy tightening by the Federal Reserve, which could boost the dollar and weigh on dollar-denominated gold.

 

U.S. stock futures were higher heading into midday. Key outside markets saw the U.S. dollar index rise on Thursday and move closer to a four-week high for the week. Crude oil prices were higher on the New York Mercantile Exchange, trading around $74.00 a barrel. Meanwhile, the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield currently stands at 4.146%. Gold rebounds as dollar recovery stalls.

 

Incrementum AG analysts said: “Gold is therefore ideal not only for maintaining purchasing power in the long term, but even for increasing it, whether at Oktoberfest, on an iPhone or on the ski slopes.”

 

Despite the rally, the precious metal remains on the back foot as investors continue to worry about when the Federal Reserve will begin its long-awaited rate-cutting cycle. Hopes that the Federal Reserve will decide to cut interest rates sooner are fading as the last leg of U.S. inflationary pressures are more stubborn than previously thought due to strong consumer spending and stable labor market conditions. Strong U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance undermined expectations of an early interest rate cut. The probability of an interest rate cut by the end of the month is still around 57%, but Fed officials are not inclined to support an early interest rate cut.

 

According to data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in February is 97.4%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 2.6%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged by March is 42.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut is 55.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point interest rate cut is 1.4%

 

ANZ analysts said that with continued macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty in 2024, gold may benefit from a transition from tightening to easing. They said, “Gold will benefit from loose monetary policy, rising geopolitical risks and strong central bank buying. Given investors’ low allocation to the sector, any rebound in investment demand will be a strong driver. We Gold prices are expected to average over $2,000 in 2024.”

 

Later on Friday, market participants will focus on Michigan consumer confidence and preliminary existing home sales. In addition, two Fed officials will speak later in the day.

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点,与Rallyville Markets无关。Rallyville Markets对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立,不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证,且不构成任何投资建议,请读者仅作参考,并自行承担全部风险与责任。

Gold prices were higher and silver was slightly higher during the session on Thursday. Gold saw some safe-haven demand as risk aversion rose later in the week amid more military action in the Middle East.

 

In terms of the situation in the Middle East, Pakistan launched air strikes against separatist militants in Iran on Thursday. Two days ago, Tehran said it attacked another group’s base in Pakistan.

 

Iranian media said several missiles hit a village in Sistan-Baluchestan province on the border with Pakistan, killing at least nine people, including four children.

 

The tit-for-tat attacks are the most high-profile cross-border incursions in recent years, raising concerns about wider instability in the Middle East since war broke out between Israel and Hamas on October 7.

 

Tehran strongly condemned the attack, saying civilians had been killed, and summoned Pakistan’s top diplomat to Iran, the charge d’affaires, to demand an explanation.

 

Iranian Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi told state television: “Information has been received that four children, three women and two men were killed in an explosion in a village, all of whom were It’s a foreigner.”

 

Alireza Marhamati, deputy governor of Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan Province in charge of security affairs, pointed out that an explosion also occurred near the city of Sarawan in Sistan and Baluchestan Province, but it caused no casualties.

 

Iran said on Tuesday it had struck targets in Pakistan it said were bases of the jihadist group Jaish al-Adl. Pakistan strongly condemned the Iranian attack.

 

Nuclear-armed Pakistan said civilians were hit and two children were killed. Pakistan recalled its ambassador to Iran on Wednesday, protesting Iran’s “blatant violation” of its sovereignty.

 

In addition to the conflict between Pakistan and Iran, the situation in the Red Sea is also of concern. The United States on Wednesday added Yemen-based Houthi rebels to its list of terrorist groups after the militants attacked a U.S. ship in the Red Sea for the second time this week.

 

Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said there is too much uncertainty and geopolitical tensions have inadvertently coordinated efforts to keep gold prices in the $2,000 range.

 

On Thursday, the number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the United States fell to 187,000 in the week ended January 13 from the previous value of 203,000, which was better than market expectations of 207,000. Additionally, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey improved to -10.6 in January from -12.8 in December. Upbeat economic data bolstered arguments surrounding longer-term policy tightening by the Federal Reserve, which could boost the dollar and weigh on dollar-denominated gold.

 

U.S. stock futures were higher heading into midday. Key outside markets saw the U.S. dollar index rise on Thursday and move closer to a four-week high for the week. Crude oil prices were higher on the New York Mercantile Exchange, trading around $74.00 a barrel. Meanwhile, the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield currently stands at 4.146%. Gold rebounds as dollar recovery stalls.

 

Incrementum AG analysts said: “Gold is therefore ideal not only for maintaining purchasing power in the long term, but even for increasing it, whether at Oktoberfest, on an iPhone or on the ski slopes.”

 

Despite the rally, the precious metal remains on the back foot as investors continue to worry about when the Federal Reserve will begin its long-awaited rate-cutting cycle. Hopes that the Federal Reserve will decide to cut interest rates sooner are fading as the last leg of U.S. inflationary pressures are more stubborn than previously thought due to strong consumer spending and stable labor market conditions. Strong U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance undermined expectations of an early interest rate cut. The probability of an interest rate cut by the end of the month is still around 57%, but Fed officials are not inclined to support an early interest rate cut.

 

According to data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in February is 97.4%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 2.6%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged by March is 42.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut is 55.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point interest rate cut is 1.4%

 

ANZ analysts said that with continued macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty in 2024, gold may benefit from a transition from tightening to easing. They said, “Gold will benefit from loose monetary policy, rising geopolitical risks and strong central bank buying. Given investors’ low allocation to the sector, any rebound in investment demand will be a strong driver. We Gold prices are expected to average over $2,000 in 2024.”

 

Later on Friday, market participants will focus on Michigan consumer confidence and preliminary existing home sales. In addition, two Fed officials will speak later in the day.

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点,与Rallyville Markets无关。Rallyville Markets对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立,不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证,且不构成任何投资建议,请读者仅作参考,并自行承担全部风险与责任。